This week, Labour announced that it might re-introduce the 10p income tax rate it scrapped and introduce a mansion tax on homes worth more than £2 million. How Labour announced this was actually pretty pathetic. The 10p tax rate was a policy they scrapped in the dying days of their government. The ‘package’ wasn’t a manifesto commitment, more a statement of intent that might or might not happen. They had no clue how it would be implemented, nor did they release concrete figures to show how it would work. Had the Tories announced such a policy during 2005-2010 without including properly worked out figures, it would’ve been rightly demolished.
But Labour’s credibility had not been totally destroyed, even though it should have been. The polls are mixed at the moment, but most of them generally indicate little change since the beginning the year, with Labour’s lead around 10 points. In my opinion, the main reason for this is that the Tories have not been following the advice I gave at the beginning of the year, especially point 5. In January, I wrote:
‘The best way to show that the Conservatives have a higher mission is to relentlessly focus on the goal of helping working people. Making the odd speech in the hope that that will ‘tick the strivers box’ won’t be enough. The Conservatives cannot allow themselves to get distracted or diverted by issues that only the liberal elite obsess about. From now on, virtually every policy announcement, bill, press release, and speech has to have the goal of helping aspirational voters in mind’.
Last month, the Conservatives started to make some progress. They announced they would give the people a say on the EU. Whilst it’s not an every day ‘bread and butter’ issue to all voters, it’s still an important issue to many blue collar voters. The polls started to narrow a bit. But what has happened since then, in February? The party spent the best part of two to three weeks arguing over same-sex marriage. And it still is arguing. Not surprisingly, the polls reverted back to a comfortable Labour lead.
What the Tories need to understand was that whilst they were arguing with each other, it gave space for Labour to set the agenda on some of the day-to-day issues, such as tax. Whilst it was Tory MP Robert Halfon who really pushed for the restoration of the 10p rate, and there were some ‘suggestions’ indicating that the Tories would do it, it was Ed Miliband who decided to make a speech about the economy, and make a fanfare about re-introducing this measure.
To be fair, some Tories have been trying to make some announcements, but these have not made much headway. When it came to Jeremy Hunt’s elderly social care announcement, most reporters emphasized that the Conservatives had broken a pre-election promise on raising the inheritance tax threshold. Again this shows evidence that the party lacks a strategy and long-term planning.
The key lesson the Tories should take from this month is that when they are constantly being distracted from focusing on issues that working class voters care about, the Tories will never be able to address their true weakness – the perception that it is not the party for ordinary working people. Ed Miliband’s most recent attacks at PMQs have not been about the party’s same-sex marriage difficulties; but how, in his mind, the Tories don’t care about the poor. This is what the Tories must deal with, and this is why, as I’ve said before on this blog, same-sex marriage will never provide the Tories’ with its ‘Clause IV’ moment.
The Labour Party isn’t stupid. It understands that a working and lower middle class-orientated Conservative Party with an alternative agenda to help working people poses a real threat to them. A party that is bad, pale imitation of the Liberal Democrats doesn’t pose much of a threat, since judging from the polls, there isn’t that much demand for one. This is why Labour are so desperate to defeat any blue collar movement or momentum the Conservatives can get going. Marcus Roberts from the Fabian Society wrote on the ‘Shifting Grounds’ blog about the advantages of the 10p income tax policy for Labour:
‘Politically, it offers a response, just in the pre-Budget nick of time, to the growing threat of ‘blue collar Toryism’ or ‘Little Guy Conservatism’ espoused by serious long term thinkers on the Right like Tim Montgomerie, Robert Halfon and Jesse Norman. But their prospectus for a Tory Party that cares more for middle earners then the 1% has of course an obvious weakness; whatever good they proscribe, Labour can likely do it better. By amending and adapting smart Tory thinking on the squeezed middle, Miliband broadens his One Nation brand’.
In my view, Blue Collar Conservatism isn’t just about ‘middle earners’, but I won’t dwell on this for now. This quote should get all Tories thinking. Notice how he regards ‘blue collar’ Toryism as a ‘growing threat’. This should raise some more doubt as to whether liberal modernisation offers the best remedy for the Conservatives’ electoral problems. It should also focus minds in No. 10 about how it can create ‘Clause IV’ moments in terms of making the party acceptable in working and middle class areas outside the Tory comfort zone.
The key question, however, is how is the Conservative leadership going to combat Labour’s idea that their party cares for the ordinary aspirational voter and the Tories don’t? They can make a start by highlighting Marcus Roberts’ rather disingenuous approach: let the ‘smart Tories’ do the real work in coming up with ideas to help squeezed voters, and then steal them and associate them with the more acceptable Labour brand. The Tories must call Labour out on this, and it must also start to make its own brand acceptable to working voters.
The battleground for the general election has been chosen. Labour is showing how it will fight it. It will be fought on issues such as tax, living standards, jobs, public services, housing, immigration, and crime. And it will be fought for the ‘hearts and minds’ of working people, including those who aspire to live an ordinary comfortable life, and those who aspire to climb the social and occupational ladder. The question for the Tories is will they show up at all on this ground – or will they be fighting each other on some other piece of ground somewhere else?
